Is a recession imminent? Don't bet on it!

The economy is showing signs of trouble, and investors and executives are increasingly concerned. Regardless of what happens, wise investors will have a plan in place, but will not try to "call" a recession. We love to mythologize characters who seemed clairvoyant ahead of previous recessions. Who doesn't want to end up like the characters in The Big Short? However you slice it, timing the market doesn't work very often, and we won't bother trying.

Nonetheless, it's important to go (wherever we are going) eyes wide open. We want to know what can go wrong, what might be going right, and how to make decisions based on those facts. I've written the attached memo, as always, in part for myself and in part for anyone else who cares to read it. Anything I write down can be held against me, and the process of researching and thinking through these issues for publication forces me to get my thoughts in order and to overcome whatever emotions today's headlines might evoke.

Economic outlook in mid-2022.pdf

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